Paragon Perspectives: The Long Watch – Exploring the forces shaping long-term investing decisions
How Do Global Conflicts Affect My Portfolio?
Real questions clients are asking about geopolitics and long-term investing
Global headlines have a way of stirring investor anxiety — wars, elections, trade disputes, and shifting alliances can make even the steadiest markets feel unpredictable. At Paragon Wealth, we’ve received a wave of thoughtful questions from clients wanting to understand how these events might affect their long-term plans. In this installment of The Paragon Perspective: The Long Watch, we’re taking a step back from the noise to answer some of those very questions. Geopolitical change isn’t new — it’s the backdrop against which markets have always evolved. The challenge (and the opportunity) lies in separating short-term reactions from long-term realities.
Q1: “With everything happening around the world — wars, elections, trade disputes — should I be worried about my portfolio?”
That’s one of the most common questions we’ve heard lately, and it’s a fair one.
The short answer: geopolitical headlines often cause short-term volatility, but they rarely derail a well-built long-term plan.
The key is distinguishing between noise and structural change. A trade flare-up or regional conflict might rattle markets temporarily, but broader trends—like the push toward domestic manufacturing, energy independence, and technological self-reliance—can reshape entire industries for decades.
At Paragon, we pay attention to both. The headlines may change daily, but our focus stays on the durable shifts that truly drive portfolio results over time.
Q2: “Doesn’t this kind of global tension usually lead to a market crash?”
Not necessarily.
History shows that markets have absorbed all kinds of geopolitical shocks—wars, terror attacks, trade conflicts, even pandemics—and still managed to recover and reach new highs.
In fact, research going back decades suggests that the average market pullback during geopolitical events tends to be short-lived. The bigger danger isn’t the event itself—it’s overreacting to it.
Stepping out of the market during uncertainty often means missing the recovery that follows. In other words: sometimes the biggest risk is not staying invested.
Q3: “What global issues actually matter to long-term investors right now?”
Not every headline deserves your attention, but a few long-term shifts are worth watching:
- Energy and Resource Security: As countries aim to secure reliable power and critical materials, companies like Baker Hughes (BKR)—which provides energy infrastructure and technology globally—may see steady demand regardless of short-term oil price swings.
- Technological Rivalry: The global race for computing power and artificial intelligence continues to accelerate. Firms like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are central to this transformation, supplying both the hardware and software that underpin productivity gains across industries.
- Re-shoring and Industrial Investment: Renewed focus on domestic manufacturing and resilient supply chains supports companies such as Eaton (ETN) and Emerson Electric (EMR), both of which supply essential equipment for energy, automation, and grid modernization projects.
These are examples of how strong, well-managed businesses can adapt—and even benefit—from structural global shifts.
Q4: “Should we be making changes to the portfolio because of this?”
We’ve made gradual, thoughtful adjustments where it makes sense—favoring companies with durable cash flow, flexible supply chains, and strong balance sheets.
But reacting to every headline with major portfolio changes is rarely productive.
Our focus remains on building resilient portfolios that can withstand uncertainty and still compound wealth over time. Whether the concern is inflation, elections, or international conflict, the best protection is owning high-quality businesses that can weather economic storms and maintain pricing power.
Q5: “Are there areas that might actually benefit from all this global tension?”
While no one welcomes conflict, certain industries can emerge stronger from these transitions.
- Energy Infrastructure: Companies like NextEra Energy (NEE) stand to benefit from the long-term shift toward energy independence and the buildout of renewable capacity at home.
- Security and Defense Technology: Axon Enterprise (AXON) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) illustrate how innovation in defense and cybersecurity becomes more essential in a volatile world.
- Critical Materials: As supply chains are restructured, firms like MP Materials (MP)—which mines rare earth elements used in clean energy and defense technologies—play a growing strategic role.
These examples highlight how some sectors are positioned to serve the changing needs of a world that’s becoming more fragmented and locally focused.
Q6: “What mistakes do investors make during uncertain times like this?”
Three common ones:
- Reacting emotionally. Fear-driven decisions—like moving to cash—often mean missing recoveries.
- Ignoring diversification. Concentrating in one region or industry can amplify geopolitical risk.
- Chasing stories. Buying stocks just because they’re “tied to a theme” rarely ends well if the fundamentals don’t support the hype.
Staying disciplined, diversified, and long-term focused almost always wins over reactive investing.
Q7: “Bottom line — what should I be doing right now?”
Focus on what you can control: your goals, spending, and risk tolerance. The rest is noise.
We’ll continue to monitor global developments and make evidence-based adjustments when warranted—not when the headlines spike. Markets have navigated wars, recessions, and political upheavals before, and the investors who stayed patient, diversified, and rational came out ahead.
Or as we like to say: we can’t control the global chessboard, but we can pick our pieces wisely.
Key Takeaways
- Geopolitical risks are unavoidable—but manageable.
- Structural shifts like re-shoring, resource security, and AI growth can create new long-term opportunities.
- Avoid reactive moves; focus on fundamentals, diversification, and quality.
- A disciplined, well-built portfolio can navigate even the messiest headlines.
About Ricardo
Ricardo J. Ferreira is the Portfolio Manager at Paragon Wealth, a firm he co-founded with Charlie McNamara, III, and Phil Rosenau. With a passion for finance and a talent for solving complex financial challenges, Ricardo leads the firm’s investment strategies, ensuring clients receive personalized and forward-thinking solutions.
A decorated U.S. Navy Veteran, Ricardo served at N.A.E.S. Lakehurst and aboard the USS George Washington, where he worked in aviation support. After his military service, he studied economics at Liberty University and began his financial career at Prudential Financial, where he met his future partners, Charlie and Phil.
Outside of work, Ricardo enjoys spending time with his family. He is married to Tina, owner of Main Street Accounting & Tax, and they have two children. Active in his community, Ricardo participates in various local events and serves on the finance council at St. Jude Parish in Chalfont. A passionate runner, he can often be found competing in local 5k and trail races on the weekends. To learn more about Ricardo, connect with him on LinkedIn.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Any mention of any individual company or stock is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is for informational purposes only
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Investment advice offered through Great Valley Advisor Group, a registered investment advisor. Great Valley Group and Paragon Wealth Management are separate
Ricardo Ferreira is solely an investment advisor representative of Great Valley Advisor Group, Inc., and not affiliated with LPL Financial. Any opinions or views expressed by Ricardo Ferreira are his own and are not those of LPL Financial.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.